Undemocratic Democratisation through Coups in Africa?

"Coup d'état 2021 en Guinée 3" by Abo뫊rkhoraa is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

Niger’s first democratic transfer of power since independence in 1960 occurred in 2021, after a record of eight coups, marking a watershed moment in the country's history.

After two consecutive five-year terms in office, President Mahamadou Issoufou decided to step down, and paved the way for Mohammed Bazoum to be elected. In anticipation of the historic transition, a summit was organised in Niger in 2019 that resulted in the adoption of the "Niamey Declaration" on "Constitutionalism for Democratic Consolidation and the Peaceful Transfer of Power," of which the author of this article was a participant.

However, two years after the transition, Niger is facing a deconsolidation of its democracy through a military coup, but it is not the only country facing this challenge, and coups appear to have garnered significant popular backing across the continent.

Out of the 18 coups that have taken place around the world since 2017, all but one (in Myanmar in 2021) have taken place on the African continent. This and the occurrence of successful military coups in 7 African countries and several failed ones over the last three years, coupled by the fact that coups seem to have garnered significant popular support, prompts a reevaluation of democracy in Africa.

Since 2021, successful coups have taken place in Chad (April 2021), Mali (May 2021 and August 2020), Guinea (September 2021), Sudan (October 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2021 and September 2022), Niger (July 2023), and Gabon (August 2023).  

Understanding Coup D'États: Types and Variations

"Coup" is short for "coup d'état," which means "the sudden and irregular (illegal or extra-legal) removal or displacement of the executive authority of an independent government."  The goal of a coup is usually to replace key government officials, not to make large-scale social, economic, and political changes like a revolution would.

Samuel P. Huntington, a political scientist, has identified three types of coups. The breakthrough coup is when an opposing group of citizens or military organisers overthrows the current government and takes over as the new leaders. A second type is called a "guardian coup," and it is usually said to be for the "broader good of the nation." It happens when one elite group takes power from another elite group. The last type is the "veto coup," in which the military steps in to stop a big change in government.

Based on the above definitions of coups, it seems that there can be both bad and good coups. In the case of the recent coups in Africa, the people who support them seem to have been able to persuade more and more people in the affected countries that some of the coups were a necessary evil. Similar conclusions seem to be self-evident to many other people, including those who don't live in the affected countries.

After the Coup in Gabon, ABC News said that "residents danced in the streets and declared themselves free from the presidential family's 55-year rule." Similar scenes were also seen in Niger after the coup there. The ABC News reported that "some in Africa are celebrating the coups. Many are fed up and desperate for change, analysts say’. Even in countries with regular elections, there seems to be a rise in the number of people who think that coup leaders are fighting for freedom. This could be a sign of a deeper problem and a reason to review the democratic processes.

Background on Coups

Coups are not new in Africa or in many other parts of the world, though, as was already said, most of the recent coups have taken place in Africa. Since the 1950s, there have been 242 successful military coups around the world. Africa has the most, with 106, which is about 44% of all the coups.

Data shows that out of Africa's 54 countries, 40 have had coups. Between the 1950s and 1990, most coups in Africa were successful, but between 1990 and 2020, the majority of coup attempts ended in failure. In the last three years, there has been a noticeable shift in this data trend with an increase in success rate of coup attempts, surpassing the number of failed attempts.

‘It could be argued that the problem is not electoral democracy in and of itself, but rather how to make democracy work in different countries…’

Constitutional Reforms in States Affected by Coups

Gabon has severally amended its constitution, including presidential terms. In its new 1991 Constitution, the presidential term was set at five years, renewable once, with direct election of the president in a two round system, and introduced multi-party system. In 1997, a constitutional amendment extended the presidential term of office from five to seven years. Another amendment in 2003 removed presidential term limits and also introduced a single-round system for all political elections, which was again reversed to a two round system in a 2018 amendment.

The latest amendment in 2023 removed term limits for all political seats, restricted the terms to five years, and re-introduced a single-round voting for all political elections. Gabon has also held several elections, some of which were contested in court and then approved by the constitutional court.

Mali's 1992 constitution allows for a maximum of two 5-year terms, just like Guinea's 2010 constitution and Niger’s 2010, revised in 2017, constitution. However, in 2020, Guinea’s President, Alpha Condé changed the constitution, through a referendum, which enabled him to run for a third term, sparking demonstrations that left dozens dead. In Sudan, the 2019 constitution allows for an unlimited number of 5-year presidential terms, while Burkina Faso's 2018 constitution only allows for a maximum of two 5-year presidential terms.

So, in general, the law seems to be central to governance in Africa as is evident through the many legal reforms, which may insinuate rule of law. But, there is a contradiction in terms of more legal reforms and the rise in military coups in these same countries. 

First, some of the countries affected by coups have long-serving presidents, families, political parties or factions. Many of these countries have a lot of natural resources, but the people are not getting basic services. Corruption is usually high, and the state institutions aren't very strong, despite legal reforms. It has also been observed that most of the affected countries are former French colonies.  

A number of recent coups took place right after elections, as observed in Gabon; while others occurred when people disagreed about the date of the elections, as exemplified in Sudan, Mali, and Chad. Additionally, certain coups transpired one or two years after disputed elections, as seen in Niger and Burkina Faso. Moreover, factors such as the presence of terrorists which contributes to heightened insecurity have added complexity to coup dynamics in Burkina Faso and Mali. All or some of the above factors may have contributed to the occurrence of coups.

Therefore, different things may be to blame for coups in different countries. In general, though, it is safe to say, based on the context, that dissatisfaction with democracy, especially the electoral system and governance is an underlying factor in most coups.    

Dissatisfaction with Electoral Democracy

Through the democratic process, the people appoint governments to work for them and make policies for the common good. Therefore, it is expected that the government of the day will have the backing of both those who voted for it and those who did not. The acceptance and adherence to electoral political outcomes in democratic societies is based on the principle of alternating between winning and losing. However, in situations where an electoral system may result in repeated losses, several studies have shown that it leads to lower levels of satisfaction with democracy, political trust, and decisions.

One of the studies establishes that “losing repeatedly depresses legitimacy beliefs more than losing occasionally, as losers are continually excluded from political power,” causing “a gradual erosion of support for a system that consistently fails to make them winners”. Another study found that repeated loss can hurt social trust, attachment to one's country, feeling optimistic, life satisfaction, and a sense of one's place in society, especially in new democracies and among people with strong partisan attachments.

Therefore, based the recent coups, it is possible that elections haven't served the purpose of democracy in at least some of the countries where coups have occurred and probably in others yet to face similar challenges. Either the people didn’t support the incumbent governments or those who lost the elections perceive them as unfair or doubt their chances of winning future elections.

In what has become a universal definition of democracy, Abraham Lincoln observed that a democracy is a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. This means that the people get to decide what kind of government they want, who will run it, and how it works.

One argument for dissatisfaction with the electoral system would be the absence of genuine alternative election outcomes, in the sense that leaders backed by different political factions do not have a real chance at winning elections. This takes away the people’s ability to vote for a different government if they are not satisfied with the policies of the government in place. In a well-functioning electoral democracy, the goal for governance should center on the common good, rather than one group seizing power from another.

It could be argued that the problem is not electoral democracy in and of itself, but rather how to make democracy work in different countries so that everyone's voice is heard and carries the same weight in an election process, including those from minority groups. This increases the chances of different groups winning an election and the possibility of different policies.

Moreover, it's about how the people can compel those in power to prioritise their best interests, especially when different polls seem to result in similar leaders and policies. If democracy doesn't have any of these things, it's possible that coups will be inevitable when things go wrong.

A decade ago, people might have been more understanding when they were told that the government didn't have enough money to build roads and connect water and electricity to their homes, but now they can see audit reports that show how their money is spent. They can now clearly see that it is not in their best interest when politicians and government leaders allocate a significant portion, sometimes as high as 70% to 80%, of the budget to cover salaries, allowances, refreshments, and luxurious travel, including first-class arrangements. So, naturally, people will protest.

In the backdrop of the recent coups, Adekoya asserted that the people are tired of bad leaders:

“People are just asking for some slight improvements to their fortunes, some slight sense of security, and free and fair elections,” he said. “Once you have the majority of people feeling ‘the system is not working for me,’ then that system is in trouble”

Conclusion

The rise in military coups in Africa in recent years, as well as an increase in the success rate of coup attempts, compounded by what appears to be more popular support for the coups than previously, based on citizens' displays of solidarity following several of the coups, which have not spared republics that hold regular elections, is potentially an indication of dissatisfaction with electoral democracy, which could be for a number of causes.

While dissatisfaction with governments is natural, in a democracy, governments can be constitutionally removed from power in subsequent elections, or through means such as impeachment in Parliament. Arguably, the failure to use the constitutional methods for effective regime changes may be a sign that such mechanisms do not exist in reality for the people.

One reason for this could be that governments are not adhering to the "rule of law," but rather practicing "rule by law." There is thus a need to ensure that constitutional mechanisms for facilitating government changes are available to the people, and that such mechanisms take into account factors such as minority representation, so that everyone has an equal democratic voice in determining leadership, governance and tenure.