Population Displacement and Genocidal Violence in an Age of Climate Change

"Ecocide = Genocide" by Overpass Light Brigade is licensed under Creative Commons BY-NC 2.0.

Climate change and the related crime of ecocide have increasingly been the focus of academic and public attention. As once stable weather patterns become more unpredictable and previously rare weather events become more common and more extreme, we are belatedly recognizing that the ecological destruction inflicted on the world around us poses a tremendous threat to not just the natural world, but to humanity as well.

For too long we have believed we are apart from nature, and are now learning the hard way that humanity is a part of nature and what we do to the natural world has consequences for the health and well-being of peoples everywhere. This growing recognition is supported by numerous reports detailing the ways in which climate change poses significant threats to humans around the world. The costs, both economically and in terms of harm and suffering, will be immense and require tremendous amounts of resources, adaptability, and resiliency.

I have spent more than 30 years studying different forms of violence, especially genocide and mass atrocity crimes, and learned that such violence does not just erupt out of nowhere. Instead, collective violence often develops as both a reaction and response to different kinds of social, economic, and political conditions. In recent years, my work has focused on highlighting the ways in which the changes to Earth’s climate systems heighten the risk for the development of communal and ethnic violence, war, and genocide.

I explore, for example, the ways in which scarce or diminishing resources, such as fresh potable water, arable land, and rare earth minerals, will intensify competition and increase tensions between communities and nations as they struggle to control or acquire resources needed to survive, to maintain standards of living, and to protect vital infrastructure systems.

“As nations struggle to confront and cope with resource loss, environmental degradation, economic hardship, and various other climate induced problems, violence against displaced people becomes not only possible, but also more likely.”

Access to water, for example, has already been a flashpoint for violent conflict and, as I have argued, has been linked to genocide in places such as the Darfur region of the Sudan and Syria. Estimates indicate that approximately one fourth of the world’s population is currently struggling with critical shortages of water and projections suggest that within a few short years around three and a half billion people will be forced to deal with extreme water scarcity. Access to potable water is quite literally a life and death issue and we should not be surprised that it is increasingly a source of conflict and even violence at the local, national, and regional levels.

Arguably one of the most significant and immediate impacts for humanity is that of population displacement. According to the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees, there are currently more than 100 million people who have been forcibly displaced around the world because of persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations, or related kinds of disturbances, a figure representing about 1 out of every 78 people on earth.

These are record high levels of displacement, yet such numbers represent only a fraction of what we can expect in the coming years and decades as people are forced out of their homes and communities by the direct (storms, flooding, drought), and indirect (state failure, civil war, revolution) consequences of climate change. The human climate niche is shrinking dramatically and millions more people will be on the move in search of security, safety, and opportunity in the coming decades.

These numbers represent human suffering on a scale that is hard to grasp. It will also have some very real consequences for the communities to which these climate refugees will go seeking shelter, safety, and opportunity. In the past, large scale population dislocation has often resulted in social instability and facilitated violent backlashes, pogroms, and civil wars.

As nations struggle to confront and cope with resource loss, environmental degradation, economic hardship, and various other climate induced problems, violence against displaced people becomes not only possible, but also more likely. This is especially the case in places where there are preexisting schisms between population groups. In such locations old prejudices and hatreds can be relatively easily revived.

When confronted with rising numbers of refugee populations at a time of stress, uncertainty, and dramatic change, popular fear and anxiety can morph into intolerance for the new arrivals, persecution, and even more radical programs of expulsion and extermination. Research has shown that difficult life circumstances often breed more punitive attitudes and opinions as individuals become more reactive and hostile to those perceived as outsiders, economic competitors, and those seen as unfairly benefiting from a society.

If the past is any indication, we also know that there are always those in power willing to manipulate, exploit and otherwise harness the anxieties and prejudice of a population to scapegoat minorities, consolidate power, and implement more repressive policies.

We have already seen a backlash against migrants and refugees in various parts of the world, an issue exacerbated by an increase in support for far-right political parties embracing anti-immigrant policies and stoking fear and hostility against migrants and refugees. Hate crimes, anti-immigrant violence, and other forms of intolerance and prejudice are at record levels in many nations.

Displaced populations are particularly vulnerable to various forms of victimization since the legal protections for displaced populations tend to be limited in nature, not applicable to all displaced persons, and dependent upon  host nations and the international community for enforcement. These groups are also often fragmented, atomized, and with limited resources and power.

The risk is that all these challenges will strain the ability of governments to meet the needs of citizens, heighten tensions among and between communities, populations, and nations, and encourage othering and scapegoating of those defined as different, dangerous, or simply superfluous.

Importantly, however, we must understand that persecution and violence are not inevitable. With the right social, political, and religious leadership, communities can unite in the face of these challenges, support each other, and maintain the bonds of civic society and community. Individually and collectively, these are qualities that we must nurture and support.